Kelley School of Business Indianapolis

It has been more than two months since sequestration triggered automatic, across-the-board federal spending cuts. The cuts, a result of the inability of the so-called “super committee” to reach consensus in November 2011, will total $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years. Around $85 billion in spending reductions will happen through the end of September this year.

The ramifications of these cuts are wide-ranging, and their impact was pulled to the forefront of the nation’s consciousness in April as furloughs for air traffic controllers began. Thousands of flights across the country were delayed before the House and Senate were able to pass legislation to end the furloughs.

Cuts to Medicare providers also drew considerable attention very early into the sequester. We first learned of cancer doctors turning away patients and sending them to hospitals for care. While Medicaid was exempt from the sequester cuts, the 2 percent reduction in Medicare reimbursements is having broad impact across the nation’s healthcare environment – and not just on those doctors who are treating cancer patients.

Mayo Clinic President and CEO John Noseworthy stated in a speech to the National Press Club in April that the clinic stands to lose $47 million annually because of the rate decrease. The first big layoff announcement came in mid-April when the Detroit Medical Center said it would cut up to 300 jobs. Though Noseworthy said Mayo Clinic would lay off employees as a last resort only, last year the American Hospital Association and the American Medical Association issued a joint report in which they stated that up to 776,000 industry jobs could be lost by 2021 if the sequester took effect.

The unexpected disruption in funding for hospitals and physicians, and the consequences brought about because of it, highlights the critical need to create an intersection where business and medicine come together – and quickly.

Outside of the healthcare industry, businesses deal with similar challenges caused by the sequester. And competitive businesses do not always implement mass layoffs when navigating unexpected, short-term price reductions, especially when maintaining high-value employees is part of a competitive strategy that is critical to retaining market share.

So how do successful businesses prepare for sudden revenue reductions?

These businesses develop agile internal capabilities and align their suppliers to share the risks and rewards of changing market dynamics. To become agile, they use different approaches to achieve the same end, including implementing IT systems to facilitate better consolidated planning and forecasting, developing a continuous improvement culture, and building accountability into an empowered decision-making structure. These approaches frequently lead to superior financial performance in the most competitive and complex global markets.

Integrating these practices into healthcare requires physicians, nurses, pharmacists, and other clinicians to be trained in the business of medicine. It can’t start and stop with streamlining administrative paperwork to reduce costs. It must begin with the way in which healthcare is delivered, and how suppliers support clinical care. At the forefront of agile healthcare is delivering better care at lower costs and building a learning organization that reduces waste and inefficiencies.

With healthcare reform on the near horizon, unexpected sudden changes in the marketplace are likely to become more commonplace. Without developing new, agile ways of delivering healthcare, a train wreck may also be in healthcare’s future. Adopting proven business practices and educating transformational physician and clinician leaders may be the only strategy that drives critically important long-term systematic change.

It has been my own experience that some women stifle their voices in the classroom.   It has puzzled me for two semesters why this is so. 

So, I researched the question and learned that the business world is indeed simply all Abuzz about this question of why women do not contribute their opinions and make their voices heard when in the boardroom or classroom.   This results in actual but uncalculated huge loss to our corporations and organizations of ideas that will never see the light of day.

“Women who are outnumbered by men in a group are less likely to speak their mind.  In fact, new research has found that women speak 75 percent less than men when in such a setting”.   (Silent Women, Why Women Don’t Speak Up, 9/20/12  David Mielach, Huffington Business News Daily)

Women statistically represent about 20% of the classroom population in Kelley’s part time MBA Programs here in Indy. We can all think of times when we have been in the minority.  Did you feel compelled to hold back and let the majority set the tone?  Did you feel that maybe what you had to say would sound silly or not be 100% accurate or that others would not share your views?  80% men is a relatively large number when considering that women now make up 48% of the workforce or more!

One could argue there is no real difference amongst the students on paper– after all, women had to pass the same tests and meet the same high standards and criteria for eligibility and admission as the Kelley men and have had the same access to higher education before they got into their much sought-after seats.  We hail from some of the most prestigious schools and companies in the Indianapolis metropolitan area; many having been placed in our exceptional and nationally- ranked program by their own employers --who obviously see great promise in us.  In short- we are bright and talented with shiny futures we can be proud to encourage, and are fully on par with our male peers in most ways that matter-- and yet, still for some reason(s), women truly “hold back” in class.

Interestingly, it has been my experience that women do not seem to suppress their ideas while on line in a virtual setting where comments are submitted safely by typing from one’s desktop and not actually asserted in front of others. Women whose voices I have never heard in class suddenly come alive on line. Why is this so?

Some would blame our parents and conditioning (women are raised to please), others blame the primary education classroom (women are not called on as much, often noted especially in math/science classrooms), others say it is in our hard wiring (Women are biologically programmed to “dumb down” in a group w actual IQ dropping in group setting Why women don't speak up at work - Video on TODAY.com )  Still others say women get in their own way by not “leaning in” hard enough and taking a firm seat at the table (a national debate –See, Facebook’s Sheryl Sandberg’s Lean In).

Whatever the reason, I am most curious about what can be done to CHANGE this practice by gently encouraging women to be heard—we want and need their voices badly in order to maintain a competitive edge as a school and beyond.

On the faculty roster at Kelley, female faculty hold their own, but in the classroom—Kelley is just below the national average of thirty percent attendance in B-School in the part time programs, I am told.  Contrast this for instance to Law School where women now actually slightly outnumber men.  What does this minority representation mean about the likelihood of women voicing their opinions in class -- and then later and beyond in the boardrooms and the world?  One posits and extrapolates that if we can get women speaking up in class, perhaps they will be more likely to volunteer in group settings as needed in the businesses they will lead or contribute to with all the fresh knowledge and education acquired at Kelley.  Part of the strength of the Kelley program is the opportunity for ample safe simulation.  Perhaps the encouragement of women’s voices should be part of that role play.  Male peers can do much to be aware of and sensitive to this silencing phenomenon now and thus encourage and seek out those muted female voices when appropriate.  Part of good managing is getting everyone to the table who has something valuable to contribute for the firm, and that can take skill and practice which can begin in class.

Women are more likely to speak when called on specifically rather than just spontaneously raising their hand since they may not do so when in the perceived minority.  Thus, faculty could subtly encourage this by changing the practices in the classroom when starting a dialogue to call on more reticent women by name rather than taking volunteers – or asking them in advance to prep for a certain part of the discussion.

Women are more likely to speak when they have built a consensus.  Women like to know or feel they are supported and backed up first-- whereas men will just jump in!  They worry more about how they will appear or being wrong in front of others. Because in Kelley we often work in teams, we can use this valuable team setting to encourage women to be the spokesperson for their respective teams.  

Ironically, we can start to change this silence by just talking about this absence of voice and adding dialogue.  Bringing sound to this topic will no doubt engender many opinions on different sides of the fence.  At any rate, awareness of something is the first step to positive alteration.  I do recognize that we have many introverts in the program – but this issue is larger than personality and appears to be gender specific.

Why does it matter?  Women’s contributions alter outcomes.  We need to remember that we are not the same organizations we fully can be when we don’t have everyone in the room participating at the table with their perceptions and ideas.  Our Kelley gals are in the room for a reason.  Innovation is built on collaboration.  

Many end users of our companies’ products and services are women.  Women’s voices and needs and contributions in the manufacturing and supply and innovation side of the business world can ultimately be seen in output and can truly be an asset to be harnessed as a competitive advantage domestically and globally.  

Public speaking is most people’s worst fear, but it can be learned.  So speak up!  Stretch in the safety of our classrooms.  We are all learning here.  Ladies, you were brave enough to step forward into all that Kelley has to offer for your future – now come all the way to the table and not just into the room… and be heard rather than just listening.   We need you and we will all be better off for it.

As the school year winds to an end, our children are caught up in dreams of summer vacations, swimming pools, and of course, going off to college.  By now most students have already paid a visit to their college of choice and we have some tips for those who haven’t and especially for those choosing a college next year.

I’ll go out on a limb and say that all colleges offer some type of visitation program for students considering attending.  From simple campus tours to weekend visits, colleges want you to get a feel for their campus life before finalizing your decision. 

Students can start out visiting schools as early as sophomore year in most cases.  As a rule, most schools allow visits and tours from Sophomores and Juniors, while reserving the overnight visits for seniors; this is partly due to age and also it helps the college make the best use of their resources.  When your student begins to settle on 3 or 4 primary college choices, then it is time to begin setting up some visits.  Before going, make sure your child does a little background check on the school; that way he/she will be informed of the history and will have a better idea of what to expect from the campus.  For example if your child has an aversion to awesome SEC football teams, they may not want to visit the University of Kentucky, and without doing some homework on it they would never know!

Now I’m going to give you the 3 W’s of college visits:

1. When to visit?

The best time of year to visit is a big question I get.  While there isn’t a particular day or week that is best, try and schedule your visit while school is in session.  Visiting during the semester will allow your student to see how the campus ebbs and flows during a normal day.  Being able to see the “life” happening on campus can really help solidify a college in terms of attending or not.  This also offers the opportunity to interact with students and get a feel for the type of students that attend.  I would recommend visiting toward the end of the Spring semester, but not too late or you’ll see a lot of stressed faces at finals time.

2. Why visit?

We really covered most of this above, but it is worth repeating.  Visiting a school will allow your child to get a feel for how the campus comes together as a community.  As your child moves away from home they will want a place they can feel comfortable and accepted if they want to succeed at college.

3. Where to visit?

Narrow your list to 3-4 colleges that are realistic choices both financially and as acceptance possibilities.  I would recommend having a diverse mix that includes a smaller school (private or otherwise), a large state school, and maybe a liberal arts school.  Allowing you student to see what options are available can be a great help.  Some students might flourish in a large state school, but wouldn’t do well in a school with a small class size.  I have several friends who attended a larger state school having never visited anyplace else.  After a weekend trip to visit another friend at his smaller private school the first friend transferred because he loved the campus so much and the attention given to students in the smaller classes. 

Overall be sure to support your student in what they want, but help guide them as much as you can.  In the long run it is their life and their choice.

Thanks for reading,

Kurt

www.indycollegefunding.org

Kurt Supe  offers Securities through CFD Investments, Inc., Registered Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA & SIPC, and Kurt Supe offers Advisory Services through Creative Financial Designs, Inc., Registered Investment Adviser. Indy College Funding is a separate and unaffiliated company from CFD Investments, Inc. and Creative Financial Designs, Inc.

From Kelley Indianapolis' Hunter Smith, Marketing and Management - Class of 2014

As an intern here at the Kelley School of Business, I was more than eager to start using my photography skills. The first two events that I photographed were Backyard Bash and the Kelley Scholarships and Awards Breakfast. Backyard Bash was very exciting because students and faculty were having a blast and taking a break from school or work. Working outside made it easier for me to produce such exhilarating photographs with the positive atmosphere.

Not to mention that I was photographing for Backyard Bash, but it was also the first event that I would help host. We had a fair amount of people come by and grab a bite to eat or play corn hole. I had fun and met more Kelley faculty, staff, and students.

The External Affairs Office’s big event was the Kelley Awards Breakfast which took place at the JW Marriot (yes-the BIG blue hotel). Since it was the day after Backyard Bash, the office was very busy pulling the last set of things together. The night before was my first time entering the hotel and I had wanted to visit it since they opened it for the Super Bowl in 2012. It took a couple of hours to arrange everything, but with preparation and heavy planning, we had everything ready to go! The following morning, I arrived and I was prepared to take photos. As students and guests started to arrive, I took candid shots of them. You could tell students/recipients were nervous, but they were here to be congratulated!

As the morning went on, my photos were coming along pretty well. However, as a photographer, there are always problems to overcome. My natural ability to use my camera efficiently allowed me to work with the best lighting (as well as some Photoshop help). Because the Awards Breakfast was my “first” big Kelley event, I myself was nervous. At the end of the breakfast, my colleagues were interested in seeing my photos. I received positive feedback and it proved to me that even under pressure, I can still take an awesome picture!

After all the recipients and guests had left, I could not help to wonder if this event was the hardest and most strenuous of all of the events. Not surprisingly, it is one of our biggest events in the office! I am excited that I now know how large scale events run and that I get to use my passion for photography frequently in this internship.

From Kelley Indianapolis' Maria Lopez, Marketing - Class of 2015

It’s that time of the year again, the time when we say farewell to our seniors. Being a Kelley Grad opens so many doors for you and we would like to help. Now you’ve probably been attacked by multiple e-mails about attending the New Grad Event. Well, I’m going to give you the scoop on what will be going down at the event and why we strongly encourage you to go.

• Great way to connect one last time with faculty. We have fun faculty members that would like to socialize with you outside the classroom. For this event you’ll get to socialize with the faculty, actually get to know them, and perhaps even have the chance talk to them on a first-name basis.
• Meet the Kelley Young Alumni Council. Say what? Yes, we do have a Kelley Young Alumni Council that actually helped plan this event and other events that you will be hearing about now that you’re alum. Want to be part of it? Put on your networking hat on and come to the event to find out more!
• Socialize one last time with your Kelley friends. You’ve spent the past 4 years at Kelley and unless you lived under a rock, you probably know fellow seniors that will be graduating with you. Perhaps there are other seniors that you’ve had multiple classes with and never had the chance to talk to them. Well, here’s your chance! Bring all your fellow Kelley Grad friends with you and socialize one last time before parting ways.
• Free food. At the Rathskeller. With Kelley faculty. And alumni. And everybody that’s a Kelley Grad. If free food with friends and faculty at the Rathskeller is not good enough, then I don’t know what else to say.

What’s the catch? Just RSVP! That’s all that we ask from you. It’s that simple! This will take place May 10^th from 5:30pm-7pm. You can RSVP by emailing Kelly Smith at smithkp@iupui.edu and just say you’ll be attending. That’s it. Nothing more.

After the event, fell free to find me and thank me for convincing you to attend. Even though they teach you not to thank in advance, you’re welcome.

From Kelley Indianapolis' Hunter Smith, Marketing and Management - Class of 2014

As a junior in the Kelley School of Business, the pressure to find an internship is intense. Luckily my internship search didn’t last as long as I was expecting.

In the fall of 2012 I started I-Core. I decided that I-Core was going to be my main focus for the semester. So my internship search was on hold until winter break. In the beginning of the spring semester, I interviewed for positions with a variety of companies. Most of these employers were looking for interns with very specific experiences or skills. It was a huge learning experience.

In late February, I landed a great internship at the Kelley School of Business Office of External Affairs. As an intern, I will help with a variety of events that Kelley hosts. Through this internship, I will be able to apply my love for photography. The best thing about this internship is that it is year-round. Knowing that I have employment during my school year takes the stress off that I have to find a job while starting a fresh semester.

My first day at my internship was a little scary for me. I found out that I had to listen in on a committee regarding a famous IUPUI event, the Regatta. As the “new kid”, I worried that I wouldn’t know what to say or to do. However the committee just a small group of people and I felt very comfortable asking questions and giving my input. Later that morning I met quite a few people who are important to the External Affairs Office. Starting off by meeting people helps me develop relationships that will be crucial for a successful internship.

Working hard in school and working hard on your search for an internship always pays off. If you are working hard in school, it almost goes hand-in-hand in finding an internship. Keep your chin up and maybe plan in advance.

Throughout my second semester, I have tried to think of blog topics to write about and I have wanted to do an "end of the year" reflection.

First of all, coming to IUPUI has been one of the best decisions I have made in my young life. Right up there with my choice to come to IUPUI, is my choice to apply to the Kelley School of Business. Despite any misgivings or apprehensions I have in my major, Kelley has gone beyond just the title, the degree and the brand of "Kelley". For me, Kelley is a family. Kelley has taught me so much in my first year, not even just in a business capacity, but in a college and life experience way.

That being said, I have definitely learned a few things throughout these past two semesters.

• Don't feel like you have to do it all. While every extracurricular, volunteer and work experience have been helpful in preparing me for the future as well as making me more aware of my surrounding community and fellow students/teachers/habitants, I took the advice, "get involved", to an almost unhealthy extreme. I was so burnt out by the beginning of second semester; I came down with a premature case of senioritis.
• Take classes (especially accounting classes) with friends or at least people knowledgeable on the subject. Accounting class, the lovely A100, was my most difficult class this semester. Accounting was a complete shock to my brain and had I taken it with some classmates and friends that I had known, I think I would have done exponentially better. Although I don't encourage taking classes with your friends at every single available opportunity, taking a more difficult class with friends can make it easier to study, ask questions and feel more comfortable on the subject matter.
• Don't take a full day of classes. I have heard this works for some people, but for me, it was perhaps the worst choice I could have possibly made. I took five classes on Monday and Wednesday and one class on Tuesday and Thursday. Getting through 9 AM- 7:15 PM on Wednesday was quite possibly the most tiring thing I have ever done to my brain. At some point, no more information can be absorbed in one day by my tired brain and I definitely maximized capability on Mondays and Wednesdays.
• Participate in the Regatta!! The Regatta was incredible. I am so glad I participated in it. While our Kelley team only had two goals (Don't fall in and don't come in last place), we had a blast and it was great way to be introduced into the IUPUI culture.
• Join DSP. I haven't yet, but it is on my list of things to do. If I hadn't so overwhelmed myself first semester, I would have totally joined Delta Sigma Pi (Sorry Daisy!). From what I can tell, it is a great way to get more involved in Kelley, make everlasting friendships and join an awesome fraternity. I will be adding it to the docket for next semester!
• Eat healthy and do some sort of exercise. With all the excitement, stress and change I experienced in my first semester, eating healthily was not on my list of priorities. I tried to maintain a regular gym regiment, but it just didn't work. But eating healthy and having a consistent eating schedule is important. Being college students, I know many just eat at random times, frequent the Papa John's in the Campus Center and get caffeine highs to get through the day...but it's not a good habit to start! Try to eat at set times, bring healthy alternative snacks and allow yourself a few guilty pleasures throughout the week!
• Don't feel pressured to stay in a certain major. This is how people begin to live life with regrets. So, you hate the business school; look for other things that spark your interest. Be creative and think of ways those interests can turn into a possible career. Email, Google and call areas around Indianapolis that could be a platform for those creative thoughts. For example, I love the creative side of business, not so much the numbers part, but I love Kelley and I know that business is a practical degree with a lot of avenues. So, I think about ways to diversify and not make college such an overwhelming, depressing experience.
• Talk to your advisor, request a mentor! I had an incredible Kelley academic advisor. And I was blessed enough for her to also be one of my professors first semester. I found that the more I talked to her about what I was thinking, the easier it was for me to make my own path in college. Also, if you have the chance to apply for a Kelley mentor or even to ask older students for advice, I would say go for it! My Kelley mentor was so much help in applying for scholarships and even speaking of our mutual love for Pride & Prejudice.
• And lastly, enjoy your time!! I recently took a good friend on a tour of campus, she goes to another local university and is looking for a different atmosphere...while giving her the tour, I realized how many beautiful, unique and interesting things we have on campus. Our Kelley school has the most uniquely decorated spaces, the library has four floors and a basement filled with books, computers and innovative learning areas, we have a funky campus center that looked amazing with all of those flags hanging from the railings, we have Herron art on display throughout campus and lastly, IUPUI has this funny thing with gerbil tubes! While it's easy to get down about college and whatever time you have to spend here, take a moment to look around. Even if you're not a party animal or a social butterfly, there are so many things to be happy about. Push through these finals and end this year on a warm, sunny note!

Now, go study for those finals and enjoy this weather!

(photo source: Victoria Lane)

From Kelley Indianapolis' Maria Lopez, Marketing - Class of 2015

Everyone pursuing a degree at the Kelley School of Business has one major common fear: I-Core. If you haven’t heard the stories yet I will give you a basic rundown: I-Core for me and the older Kelley students was a block of 3 courses that consisted of Finance, Operations, and Marketing. To go along with the courses, we have a group project in which we implement what we learned in the 3 courses to expand/create a business. Now, I say it was 3 courses because starting in the fall 2013, they are adding a fourth course involving team management. I know what you’re thinking, “I’m switching my major to Education for sure!” but there’s no need for that! If I can survive I-Core so can you and I’ll tell you how. Below are the upmost sacred secrets about how to survive I-Core and actually enjoy it. Disclaimer: These are not proven facts; it is based purely on opinion, mostly my opinion.

1. NEVER be late to class. Everyone hates it when people walk in late and interrupt.
2. It is best to take the morning block of I-Core. Be on campus by 9am. Walk out by 2:45pm. BOOM! Done! 
3. Have a set group meeting each week. In my group, we integrated a day of the week that works best for all and we met that day each and every week. Simple and it works.
4. Don’t like your group too much, it will never work. Our major problem was that we all loved talking to each other so when we had a group meeting, we always got off track and distracted. Go to the meetings, assign tasks, and call it a day. There will be time to socialize after I-Core.
5. Even if your business idea won’t work, be honest. When you present your idea to the professors at the end of the semester, be honest with them on whether it will make a profit. If the idea was horrible and it should be erased off the phase of the earth tell them!
6. Finance is not that bad. I know what you’re thinking, “Accounting was the death of me, you will not make me do Finance!” I completely agree, but Professor Roberson and Professor Smith are wonderful at explaining finance and it might end up being your best grade. Go figure! 
7. Yes, it is hard. I-Core will be hard and it will be a lot of work but all the work you put into it is worth it.  It is something you’ll need to know for your group project and the exams. It is actually valuable information!
8. Visit your professors, they’re actually nice. They may seem like they never have time and are always so busy. Yes, they are busy but they will make time for you and help you. If you’re afraid of going alone, make your friend go with you and pretend you both need help. Chances are you will both benefit from the visit, guaranteed! 

Last week, I built a simulation model to estimate the probabilities of each team winning the men's NCAA basketball tournament.  It's time to re-visit the model and put in some estimates.

Comparing Results:

 It is difficult to evaluate a probabiity model based on actual results.  If you estimate the probability of rain tomorrow to be 90% and it doesn't rain, it is not necessarily the case that you made a bad forecast.  However, we can look at some of the overall findings.

While the model didn't predict that Gonzaga and Georgetown would lose, they did have them as the #1 and #2 seeds that were least likely to advance.  The top four teams by probability (Louisville, Indiana, Florida, and Ohio State) all advanced to the Sweet 16.

On the down side, Wisconsin was the highest rated #5 seed before their disappointment, although all the #5 seeds were pretty lame this year.

Florida Gulf Coast U. advanced even though the probability was estimated at .022 and La Salle at .049.

All in all, the model performed respectably (and well enough to keep me in the hunt in Kelley Faculty Pool).

Forecasting the rest of the tournament:

I have updated the model to estimate the probability of winning at this point.  The updates included using updated Sagarin Ratings that include the results from last weekend's games.  And then I ran another simulation with 20,000 iterations to forecast probabilities:

A few interesting things pop out of the model.  First, Lousville remains the favorite with a probability of .21, while Florida has jumped to the second favorite spot.  Interestingly, in spite of its wins, the probability that Indiana wins has actually decreased.  The reason is due to the now tough schedule that they face.  While Louisville and Florida will face a #12 and #15, respectively, Indiana has to face Syracuse and (most likely) Miami to get to the Final Four.

While the country may be in love with FGCU, they aren't given much of a chance to beat Florida, much less go to the Final Four or win the championship.  I think it is almost midnight, Cinderella.

Kyle Anderson is an economist at the Kelley School of Business who wishes he had gone to a school with the nickname of Dunk City.  You can follow him on Twitter: @kyleanderson1

From Kelley Indianapolis' Cassie Coble, Marketing - Class of 2013

As a graduating senior the last thing on my mind is school. I am haunted daily by the decisions I have to make as my undergraduate career wraps up. Unlike some of my fellow classmates, I haven’t secured a job yet. This thing called “real life” everyone talks about is making me queasy. And my gut feeling is to just take off and discover the world. I’m faced with many questions and am slowly starting to find answers.

Dilemma #1

No job. I have been actively searching for a job that fits me. I don’t want to be too picky, but I know that when I land my first job it will set me up for the next few years of my life. If that’s not scary enough, no job means no money.

Dilemma #2

Real life. Does this mean I have to grow up? I feel more prepared than some of my peers to dive into the real world. However, there are so many factors beyond college life that most of us don’t think about until it smacks us in the face. Real life doesn’t consist of any extra credit or make-up work. What if I fail? I can’t just receive a bad grade and retake the course.

Dilemma #3

Carpe Diem. I have a strong urge to use the time after college to travel. I have no children, husband, or mortgage payment to tend to. This opportunity brings challenges upon entering the workforce right out of college. I would like to take this time to backpack through Europe or go to a ranch and ride into the hills. I can just hear my father in the back of my mind, “Why don’t you just get a job?” My only concern is the idea of rejecting a job offer that may not be there when I return.

Dilemma #4

Uncertainty. As an event planner, I have mastered the art of multi-tasking and developed phenomenal time management skills. My inability to predict what to expect after I get my degree brings chaos and confusion. I have events, classes and volunteer work that compete for my attention daily. What will I do when those activities disappear after graduation?

Dilemma #5

Comfort zone. I have built a strong network of friends on campus and with my Kelley Indy family. Although I am used to people coming in and out of my life, I find it especially hard to disconnect from some of the relationships I have built. As my classmates venture off to pursue their careers a part of me feels irresponsible jumping on a plane to Europe. My bubble may explode. 

These decisions weigh heavy on my shoulders. I won’t regret traveling but will I regret being broke for another six months ? Will the jobs I’m looking for be hiring? Will I have any friends left? These are just a few thoughts that go through my mind when thinking about life after graduation. Due to the urgency of these decisions, I won’t have to be uncertain for much longer. 

IUPUI had an incident last week. And almost immediately, IUPUI was thrust into local, state and even the national spotlight. #IUPUI and #Longgun became trending topics and local television stations had a live feed on the campus.

In the aftermath of what some tweeters are calling "IUPUILockdown2013"; there are definitely some questions.

How serious was this incident being taken?

When I got the first automated call from IUPUI, I was walking through a parking garage and could hear screeching tires outside the garage. So, combining the startling phone warning and the Indy 500 taking place just beyond the concrete walls; I was definitely freaking out.

I scurried across the street and walked into the IT building looking for any sign of:

• people freaking out
• people hyperventilating 
• professors, faculty and/or police giving orders to students

And I saw absolutely none of the above.

As I sat down in class, it became apparent that while everyone knew what was going on, no one seemed too concerned. A girl across from me was online buying shoes, a boy in the front of the class was cracking jokes about supposed motives of the gunman and a group of girls were discussing the desensitization of our generation. All very nonchalantly. And I have to wonder why students acted this way.

Are we really so desensitized as a generation that not the buzzing of helicopters overhead, the brigade of police down the street or the eventual lockdown of all buildings doesn't startle us?

And of course, I realize the news later on certainly revealed how tame the situation actually was. I even chuckled at some of the tweets I read later that night. However the cavalier attitude taken by students was incredible. Maybe it's just me though but gunmen and lockdowns were not exactly part of my high school's curriculum nor my everyday life.

As I was driving home afterwards, the whole incident just reminded me of the children's game "Telephone". One person starts, whispering a statement to another person, and it is passed down the line until you get to the last person and by the time you get to the last person, the statement is so warbled and changed that everyone has a different variation of the story.

Now, while the incident certainly wasn't a child's game, there were so many reports, tweets, and random "tips", "facts" and "stories" being passed from student to student that by the end of the day, I heard many different things...(none so ridiculous though as that the supposed gunmen had shot himself).

How could we have handled it differently?

Apparently, there were many students, teachers and passer-bys that were interviewed by television stations (WTHR story here) that had no idea what was going on, didn't realize the gravity of the situation or didn't even realize we were on lockdown. To make matters worse, the IUPUI prepared website had not even been updated since September 2010. There were no alerts. No warnings. No steps of action to take. IUPUI's twitter and IUPUI's parking twitter gave conflicting reports. And as much as I appreciate several phone calls, texts and emails, those three things don't keep people safe. Preparedness, plans and action keep students, faculty and professors safe.

I love IUPUI and there were a lot of things that seem to go right throughout this whole incident. I just hope the students, faculty and administration come up with appropriate action steps to take. This time we were able to experience a scary situation and no one was hurt, however, if there ever is a next time, it could be a different story. So I urge us all to take this time to reflect on what went well and what didn't and then act. So we all stay safe.

Alternative energy technology and entrepreneurial revolution: powering Indiana’s future!

Last week’s lunch meeting at the Venture Club of Indiana

  provided BOTH a spotlight presentation by Al-Gal-Co, a hydrogen power generation technology AND a keynote address by Dr. Kuratko of IU Bloomington’s Kelley School of Business.

Al-Gal-Co promises an alternative to gasoline powered vehicles with its aluminum and water technology that creates clean burning hydrogen fuel. Whether as a retro-fit to cars and trucks, or through mobile, military power generation; Kurt Koehler touted his company’s successes in its seven year development. The intriguing, zero carbon emission energy offers exciting potential with its recycled lifecycle materials model, flexible application from vehicles to electrical generation, and the possible international and domestic markets it could serve. While all innovative energy technology faces hurdles with user adoption, if the price comparisons continue favorably, Al-Gal-Co could stimulate Indiana’s green energy impact!

Dr. John Kuratko of the KSB treated the audience to a passionate talk on the entrepreneurial “Revolution to Evolution.” By using humorous points, personal perspectives, educational facts, and his inspirational delivery, “Dr. K” held the attention of the mix of venture capitalists, aspiring entrepreneurs, business leaders, and motivated students. Key take-aways included:

1) The view of a mindset shift from institutional to individual reliance: where the power of individuals has redirected corporations, institutions, and even the entire economy.

2) The entrepreneurial mindset includes a dynamic process of vision, change and creation that utilizes the leaders’ energy, passion, and implementation skills.

3) The strategic priority of innovation through a people focused approach to utilize the strengths of personnel to improve and transform institutions everywhere.

The final 1 minute video clip on  was an appropriate and appreciated finish!

Please visit other supply chain entrepreneur blog entries by Kelley School of Business Indianapolis Evening MBA student, Chance Hair.

In my MBA course, I teach some spreadsheet modeling using simulation in Microsoft Excel.  The beauty of simulation is that you can estimate the likelihood of very complex outcomes by simulating it over and over again.  To put my modeling to the test, I thought I would create a model for the NCAA men's basketball tournament.

The idea behind the model is quite simple.  You need to have some rankings so that when two teams play each other, you can estimate the probability that each team will win.  Once you have these rankings, you can estimate a probability for any match-up.  By feeding these two excel, and using random numbers, you can then simulate the tournament over and over again.  For this model, I used Jeff Sagarin's NCAA power rankings (points predictor) to determine the relative strength of each team.  Technical note:  to convert the two rankings to a probability, we assume that final scores are normally distributed with a mean equal to the difference in Sagarin rating, and a standard deviation of 10.5.  So when Notre Dame (ranking 85.7) plays Iowa State (ranking 84.4), Notre Dame will be predicted to win by 1.3 points, and the probability that they win is estimated at .55 (although my student Dan Lauck will tell me it's much higher).

If you would like a more detailed (geeky) read about the different ratings systems and methodologies, check out Nate Silver's explanation of the different forecasting methods.

I have created a series of videos and spreadsheets explaining my methodology.  You can view them here:

http://home.kelley.iupui.edu/kyjander/tournament/ncaa.htm

Once you have the probabilities, you can run the model as many times as you want to see the results.  The results below are based on 20,000 simulation runs.

Here is a listing of all the teams in the tournament and the probability that each team wins a given number of games.  You have to win four games to get to the Final Four, and six games to win the NCAA Championship.  As you can see, Louisville is the favorite with a .179 probability of winning the championship, while IU is second.  Due to an easier draw, IU actually has the best chance of any team to get the Final Four, although it is still less than 50/50 (.448).

Things to Look Out For:

According to the model, there is a 7.5% chance that one of the #1 gets knocked out in the first round.  (Note: regardless of the NCAA's silliness, I count the Thursday/Friday games as the first round and do not count the Play-in games as wins in the model above).  IU has the toughest first round matchup as both LIU and James Madison are strong for 16 seeds, and Gonzaga and Kansas are both slightly vulnerable.  This might be the year for the first #16 seed to advance.

The four number 1 seeds are about even money to win it all, although if you have to take four teams, take Louisville, IU, Ohio State, and Florida.

Two conferences stand out:  the Big Ten (7 teams in) is expected to win 12.7 games, while the Big East (8 teams in) is expected to win 12.0.

Below is the likelihood that each team will make the Final Four (teams with less than 2% chance are excluded).

Filling Out Your Bracket

One of the problems with this kind of modeling is that it is still hard to convert a probability into picks.  Even if you take Louisville to win it all, you've got an 82% chance of being wrong.  However, here are a few insights that might help:

Everyone always takes 12 seed to beat a 5 - if you're going to do it this year, it looks like UNLV is your best bet to lose in the first round (to California).  A better "upset" pick is 11 seed Minnesota to take down UCLA.

Georgetown looks like a good pick for an early exit if you want to choose a big upset special.

Florida is expected to outperform for a #3 seed.  If you want an explanation, here is an article that summarizes the love they get from the Stats Geeks

Now that you have the probabilities, you can fill out your bracket and spend the next two weeks watching great college basketball and taunting your friends as you win the pool.  As for me, I'm entering my bracket against the other Kelley Faculty.  I don't have to win, but I have to beat the Management faculty - can't lose to a group that makes picks by drawing out boxes and arrows.  

Let me know if you like this and I will update it as we move through the tournament.

Kyle Anderson teaches economics, statistics, and bracketology at the Kelley School of Business.  

You can follow him on Twitter @kyleanderson1

From Ginger Connin - Kelley MBA - Marketing - June 2014

We visited a company here in Bombay named Bloom Energy. This company provides alternative energy applications. By visiting this company, our group learned so much. First, it is a reminder of the power of relationships. The individual leading the unit in India was in college with Prof. Dhanaraj. Years later, this relationship continues to actually strengthen and is an example of the true value of networking - not to just have contacts, but to meet people who may be a good friend in the future. Second, as Kelley MBA students, we were able to speak to the up and coming leaders at this company. What started off as us explaining where we were at in our journey as a leader, some of the leaders at Bloom then shared their's. It was amazing! The level of interaction between the two groups, the same struggles our group has is also the SAME EXACT struggles by some of the Bloom leaders. It was a powerful reminder, regardless of what country we reside in, the leadership challenges with people to people and manager to direct report are consistent. From this event, I was able to witness truths from, The Leadership Challenge (Kouzes and Posner), that we are reading for our Leadership Development class. Information the authors use is gathered from around the world. This visit was truly amazing and brought together many aspects of the MBA training and the time to just spend with people facing the same struggles we do.

From Katie Baker - Kelley MBA - Supply Chain - May 2014

The photo is a room key in a special slot in the wall.  The lights in the room (or sometimes just the "washroom") won't turn on unless the room key is inserted.  There could be two possible reasons for this...

1. To keep people out
2. To save energy

I would like to think the latter since all the lights go off a minute or so after the key is removed (and say your roommate needed to take her key with her so you're suddenly stuck in the dark).  This  removes the need to do the motion sensor light dance while the room is still occupied and is a small energy efficient step ensuring no lights are left on in an unoccupied room.

From Ginger Connin - Kelley MBA - Marketing - June 2014

Prof. Dhanaraj spoke at the prestigious IIM in Bangalore.  While we are here, he is a visiting scholar with this school.  The class consisted of ~300 Indian students.  He reviewed a case that involved actions of Bayer and child labor in India.  It was very interesting to hear the class debate the merits of cultural acceptance of age old practices versus the values of firms in the age of corporate social responsibility.  The students were required to think through Prof. Dhanaraj's questions as the responded as they may someday face the same value questions the leader in Bayer experienced.  It was worth the experience to see how the Indian students view themselves, their country's practices and to hear Prof. Dhanaraj challenge them to evaluate their future actions.  Will they take the easy way others before them may have traveled, or will they make a difference, even if it is for only one person at a time?  This question posed by Prof. Dhanaraj rings true, regardless of nationality.  Truly a boundaryless statement.

From Ginger Connin - Kelley MBA - Marketing - June 2014

Today we visited 3 different Indian companies - Zimmer, Bharti Airtel and Maruti Suzuki.  The executives within each of these companies were very kind and explained how they do business in India and stressed not to take cookie cutter approaches when trying to enter new markets.  While they stress that aspect for India, it is a great reminder for all new ventures being considered.  As Prof. Charles Dhanaraj continues to remind us, this experience begins to build a framework in our minds from which to hang new ideas, a framework that did not exist prior to embarking on this journey.

From John R. Busenbark - Kelley MBA - Finance - May 2013

Well, the Kelley MBA (Emerging Markets: India) group is finally preparing in the imminent minutes prior to departure on our 15 hour flight to Dehli, India! After a substantial amount of time spent in cultural, psychological, and intellectual preparation for our trip, corresponding meetings, and consulting appointments, I feel I’ve generally surmised the following events will occur on the trip: First, I’ll find myself in a luxurious 1940’s cocktail lounge in Hong Kong (don’t ask how I arrived here), where I’ll be engaging in a reconnaissance mission to oversee the lead singer (don’t ask how I attained this mission); next, I’ll be whisked away in frenzy, fleeing from Chinese mobsters, in a car driven by a young boy who endearingly refers to me as “Dr. Jones”; then, I’ll crash my return plane in the middle of the Indian jungle, where a group of local rural villagers will enlist my help to resolve a problem they’re facing with a deranged religious group in a local temple; finally, after arduous internal reflection and physical awesomeness, I’ll have saved all of the villagers’ children and brought justice upon the cult’s prince.

Ok, so maybe I’ve derived that depiction of how our time in India will be from a different source? We can’t be sure either way. What I do know, however, is that we’ll be having an adventure – visiting Bangalore, Dehli, and Bombay, consulting with key players in several large firms, and investigating the cultural landmarks of the nation.

In these final minutes before we leave, I’m spending the time trying to reconcile the preparation I’ve received with how I anticipate India to actually be. I’ve spent so much time psychologically preparing for cultural and climate shock, that I’m now getting concerned that I’ve placed an overbearing load on my mind. Further, as I gaze upon our future home for the next 15 hours (the Air India Dreamliner), I’m attempting to recall all of the economic and financial research I’ve done in preparation of discussions with executives, economists, and managers at Indian firms and governmental systems. While meeting with the movers-and-shakers of any institution places a mental burden on the foreign individual, meeting those from a society of such drastic and idiosyncratic change places additional stress on the facilities of those in a similar position.

All of this, however, is what makes the trip to India so attractive. While we can read as many books and articles from economists as scholars as we’d like, there is no printing mechanism quick enough to parallel the speed at which India is transforming. The only optimal method for us to understand an economy, society, and business ecosystem growing (or emerging) with this inertia is to actually go, explore, inquire, and discover through first-hand accounts. Although there is a sincere uncertainty about what we’ll experience and how interpret and react to information absorbed, this uncertainty is what creates so much excitement about India.

As we board the plane, all I can think about is the plethora of learning opportunities that awaits for us. We’ll keep you updated as we explore the terrain and landscape of both the physical land and the intangible societal climate. Even more, we’ll posit some thoughts on our findings over the next week and how they can be connected to what we’d expect from emerging markets and how there are disparities from what we’ve read.

In the words of the great Bart Scott…”CAN’T WAIT!”

From Kelley Indianapolis' Breanna Whitaker, Marketing and Supply Chain Management - Class of 2013

What exactly is a transferable skill? On Thursday, February 22, Professor Josh Plaskoff presented at the Indy Hub Career Compass event focused on reflecting on your transferable skills. Professor Plaskoff started his presentation by speaking about his very diverse professional background. He spoke on his indecisiveness when choosing an educational career path and how he eventually took the lessons of each journey into each new opportunity that life gave him. From an English major, to entertaining the idea of law school, medical school, and rabbinical school, Professor Plaskoff knows all too well the importance of recognizing the skills that an individual picks up through life’s many different paths.

 “Looking forward in your life is a total mess, but looking backwards is a straight line” –Josh Plaskoff

During Thursday’s Career Compass event, Professor Plaskoff explained that specialized skills apply to maybe a particular position, but transferable skills are the skills that multiply opportunities and allow for work to be more exciting and rewarding. He insisted that taking time to reflect is a key process in recognizing a transferable skill.

Professor Plaskoff stressed the need for a mentor in every individual’s life. He explained that a mentor provides guidance and aids in prompting the self-reflection needed to develop one’s professional life as well as understanding key transferable skills. In addition to the necessity of a mentor, Professor Plaskoff emphasized the need for continued learning. Professor Plaskoff earned a Ph.D. in instructional systems. When earning his Ph.D. at Indiana University, he focused in informal learning in an organizational setting. As a current adjunct Professor at the Kelley School of Business Indianapolis, Plaskoff firmly believes that he learns more from his students every semester than they learn from him. He is a strong believer that learning takes place everywhere, even if that means learning from the reality T.V. show “Survivor”.

“Learning is at the core of who you are”- Josh Plaskoff

After speaking on his personal journey to understanding his transferable skills, Professor Plaskoff left the group of young professionals pondering what hidden transferable skills they could discover within themselves.

The quote that professor Plaskoff started his presentation with is one of my greatest takeaways:

“Your main task in life is to give birth to yourself, to become what you potentially are.”- Erich Fromm

As if there aren't enough reasons to love Friday, we can always find one more.  Fridays have been great for the stock market this year with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up on every Friday, earning an impressive cumulative return of almost 4%.  While it may not sound like a lot, 4% is a pretty good return for holding stocks on only eight days.

What is the likelihood that this would happen by chance alone?  Pretty small.  If you flip a coin 8 times, the percentage of time it will come up heads all eight times is 0.39%.  Put another way, if you spend your days flipping coins (like I do when grading papers) you should only get 8 out of 8 heads 1 out of every 256 times that you try.

Based on this low probability, should we assume that Fridays are somehow different days in the market than other days?  Should we put all our cash into the market on Thursday night, and sell everything at the end of the day on Friday?

Before we do, there are a couple things we should keep in mind:

1.  Statistical anomolies happen.  Yes, it is unlikely that the market would be up on 8 consecutive Fridays.  But it is also unlikely that the market fundamentals or people's desire to hold stocks or the valuation of companies is different on Fridays than it is on Tuesdays.

To give a different example, German soccer fans made Paul the Octopus a world-wide celebrity during the 2010 World Cup.  Prior to each match involving Germany, Paul's keepers put two containers of food in his tank, each container marked with the flag of one of the teams.  Whichever food Paul chose was designated as Paul's selection for the match.  During the World Cup, Paul correctly chose the winner in 8 out of 8 matches (including choosing Spain over Germany in the semi-finals, much to the anger of the German fans who 

began circulating octopus recipes).  Did Paul possess an uncanny ability to see the future or handicap soccer matches?  Rationally, most of us understand that Paul was just lucky.  The likelihood of a common octopus correctly picking 8 games is quite small, but the probability that a common octopus can see the future is much, much smaller.  Therefore, we choose the most likely explanation.

Further, we don't hear about the other 255.  I'm sure that somewhere in Germany there was somebody putting his hamster through a maze to predict the World Cup, but since the hamster only picked three games correctly, we never heard about it.

2.  It is not always easy to distinguish between data trends and anomolies.

In these examples, it may be easy to understand that these are the product of chance.  However, when witnessing a streak, it is human nature to look for a cause, and to expect the streak to continue.  Basketball announcers are notorious for the belief that streaks will continue.  A player who has made 3 shots in a row will often be given the ball, even though he is no more likely to make the next shot than if he had missed the last three.  Yet, the belief in the Hot Hand is strong and persistent.

If your stockbroker calls you up and recommends a mutual fund that has beat the average for funds in its class 8 years in a row, would you invest in that fund?  As we've already seen, if a fund is no better than average, then it would be pretty rare for it to beat the market 8 years in a row.  However, it is not that rare, given how many funds there are.  Yahoo! Finance lists 9,870 funds in its mutual fund screener.  If fund returns were all completely random, you would expect 1 out of every 256 of them to beat the average 8 years in a row.  Or, to put it another way, even if there was no difference in funds, you would expect to have 39 funds that have performed better than average 8 consecutive years.  

As a comedian once noted, in this country, if you're a 1 in a million person, then there are 314 people just like you.  Seemingly rare events will happen all the time if you look across a large enough sample of observations.

3.  Numbers are great, but you need to have a theory as well.

Data mining is the practice of searching through large amounts of data and looking for trends, correlations and insights among the data.  For example, a retailer might search through its purchase records and find seemingly unrelated products that are frequently purchased together.  However, in order to truly gain insights about the customers, it helps to have a theory/explanation for the phenomenon that you are finding.  Once you have that, you should then seek out additional data to test your theory.  So if you think that Fridays are better than other days (a theory developed from your data) it is important to test that theory against different data (for example, the next 8 Fridays).  If the new data support the theory, then you can have a much stronger belief that there is a true relationship there.  

Given that the Friday Phenomenon (I'm trademarking that phrase) is so unlikely, I wouldn't be surprised if we see it get picked up as a trend.  Academics will start writing papers about it, and hedge funds will pop up promoting a special, secret new trading strategy (buy on Thursday and sell on Friday).  However, I hope we will keep in mind that it is probably just one of those weird things that happens.   

What is the chance that the market goes up next Friday?  Maybe we should call it 50/50.

Kyle Anderson is an economist at the Kelley School and an expert on prognosticating cephalopods.

Follow him on Twitter:  @kyleanderson1

For more animals predicting sporting events, check out Jimmy Fallon using puppies to predict the Super Bowl winner: